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Monday 15 September 2014

Emperor Putin's War on Ukraine for the Russian Monopoly of the Ukrainian Gas Market.

The Spanish media oligopoly (A3 Media and MediaSet) have intentionally depicted the Russian-Ukrainian war as a mere ethnic conflict by drawing a poisonous parallel between the violent Russian-speaking rebels of eastern Ukraine and the Spanish (British or Italian) territories' peaceful and democratic struggle for greater autonomy. According to the Spanish media, we are in front of a simple fight between Ukrainians and the so-called "separatists" of eastern Ukraine. Nevertheless, far from being a simple ethnic dispute between the eastern Donetsk-Luhansk axis and ethnic Ukrainians, the truth is that the war that has broken out in eastern Europe has a lot more to do with the battle for the monopoly of the Ukrainian gas market, which is traditionally held by the Russian Empire, particularly by a State-owned Russian gas company known as Gazprom —the apple of emperor Putin's eyes—, which is Ukrainian Naftogaz's main supplier.

In Europe, we are unaware of the extent to which the Russian Empire controls the European economy through Ukraine. That is why the geopolitical location of Ukraine is so relevant, especially for Russia: should Moscow lose its control over the Ukrainian gas market, Europe will become an energy-independent continent, which is contrary to the interests of emperor Putin. Furthermore, the upcoming Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (commonly known as TTIP) between the European Union and the United States also represents a stab in the back for the imperialistic ambitions of Putin, since Brussels has very proudly resolved to become North America's major customer —a much more reliable partner for the economic agenda of the EU— since Canada, the United States and Mexico are emerging as new major oil and gas exporters. In fact, establishing trade and investment partnerships with Europe and the East Asian nations (South Korea, Japan and Taiwan) has been a cunning plan on the part of Washington that enables America to play a central role on the geoestrategic chessboard and global market whereas the Russian Empire becomes progressively isolated and out of place. Emperor Putin's goal is to prevent this whatever the cost.

It is crucial for Russia to hold the monopoly of the Ukrainian gas market.

The North American continent is rich in natural resources. Canada, the USA and Mexico are becoming major oil and gas exporters. This is alarming for the geopolitical position of Russia.

Perhaps, Spain doesn't have much to do with the war for the Ukrainian gas market, since we mainly import gas and oil from Northern Africa, especially from Libya —also from Qatar, Al Jazeera's motherland, the Emirate that is said to fund the ISIS with the aim of ensuring its own oil and gas exports over Iraq's, which is Qatar's main competitor, towards Turkey, another nation that has been recently accused of secretly funding the ISIS by Shimon Peres, former president of Israel—. However, nowadays, Ukraine and, consequently, central and eastern Europe, which have chilling winters, are still highly dependent on oil and gas supply from the Russian Empire: around a quarter of Europe's gas comes from Russia through pipelines that bypass Ukraine and, even though Ukraine has ample natural resources (1.1 trillion cube meters of proved reserves of natural gas), they cannot exploit them as much as they should. They are rather made to import gas from Russia.

Ukraine has a similar problem to Argentina, which is also a highly rich nation in natural resources: it is made to import more gas (~36.4 billion cubic metres) than it actually exports (~2.6 billion cubic metres). This is Putin's business. If emperor Putin keeps holding the monopoly of the Ukrainian gas market, he will keep dominating not only Ukraine but also most European nations (Germany, Britain, France, Poland) with the only exception of the Iberian peninsula. Hence, Kyiv is highly interested in finding alternative suppliers, particularly from the European Union, with two basic aims: (1) to reduce their dependency on Russian imports and (2) diversify their own domestic market. Actually, there are European and American companies that wish to break the Russian monopoly —highly interesting for both the national interests of Ukraine as a country and Ukrainian gas consumers themselves, because competition between several companies helps lower prices— and start flowing gas into Ukraine. In fact, Slovak company Eustream A.S. has recently started flowing gas into Ukraine through a gas pipeline from the Slovak town of Vojany to the Ukrainian town of Uzgorodov. However, this is only a partial solution since little Slovakia can only flow 10 billion cubic metres a year (Ukraine needs 25 cubic metres a year) to completely replace Gazprom's supply.

Kyiv is seeking to prevent emperor Putin from playing dirty tricks on them. For example: cutting off the gas supply every three years —as Russia did in 2006 and 2009— with the aim of pushing up prices and, ultimately, increasing Ukraine's debt to Moscow. Actually, I honestly believe that Gazprom is absolutely ready to unilaterally cut off the gas and oil supply destined for the European Union any time. As a consequence, the cost of gas might rise dramatically. That is why it is crucial for Brussels to try to break Gazprom's monopoly as Ukraine's major gas supplier. Yet Putin has no interest in a sovereign Ukraine becoming Europe's major oil and gas exporter, which would definitely displace Russia, nor is he interested in an energy-independent Europe. That is why some months ago the intelligence services of the Kremlin started to fuel pro-separatist sentiments among the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine's eastern provinces, pretty much inspired on the strategies of Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the 'Arab springs' that hijacked those countries' revolutions. The humanitarian consequences of Putin's conspiracy is —according to the United Nations, which is not a reliable source— more than ~3,000 people dead so far.

Just like planet Jupiter in the Solar System, the Russian Empire is an enormous gas planet with a strong gravity that prevents the asteroid belt from forming another planet in its neighbourhood. Similarly, Moscow is highly interested in being surrounded by a bunch of small, dependent and controllable countries, which the Russian emperor can easily keep under his control in order to ensure his supremacy. This is why the Kremlin does not respect Ukraine's sovereignty (or the Republic of Georgia's, for that matter) and is seriously trying to boycott the full completion of the European Union. Russia does not want to have another big planet like the European Union on its own neighbourhood, especially when this planet represents one single market and is acting as one political body —for the first time in history— when enforcing economic and political sanctions against it, something which has deeply damaged Russia's economy, diplomatic relations and international status. It should be crystal-clear for all Europeans that the Kremlin's goals are (1) the Balkanisation of Ukraine into small republics, (2) ruining the commercial and political relations between Brussels and Washington and, ultimately, (3) the fall of the European Union altogether.